Signal Framework
Signal Edge Performance
Live evidence from paper_campaign + backtest. Source: signal_edge_stats.
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Overall expectancy
Positive Avg R = the system makes money on average. Profit Factor > 1 = wins bigger than losses.
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Overall expectancy
Positive Avg R = the system makes money on average. Profit Factor > 1 = wins bigger than losses.
| Source | Sample | Win Rate | Avg R | Target / Stop / EOD | Profit Factor | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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By signal type
BUY is what you should look at (tradable). WATCH is observation-only — expected to look worse on paper because it isn't entered with a real discipline.
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By signal type
BUY is what you should look at (tradable). WATCH is observation-only — expected to look worse on paper because it isn't entered with a real discipline.
| Signal | Source | n | Win Rate | Avg R | T / S / EOD | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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By confidence bucket
LOW loses money (blocked from paper entry). MEDIUM has positive edge. HIGH is the sweet spot — take those seriously.
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By confidence bucket
LOW loses money (blocked from paper entry). MEDIUM has positive edge. HIGH is the sweet spot — take those seriously.
| Bucket | Source | n | Win Rate | Avg R | T / S / EOD | PF | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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By market regime
How the strategy does when the whole market is BULLISH, MIXED, or BEARISH. If BULLISH is far better than BEARISH, size down (or skip) on bearish days.
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By market regime
How the strategy does when the whole market is BULLISH, MIXED, or BEARISH. If BULLISH is far better than BEARISH, size down (or skip) on bearish days.
| Regime | Source | n | Win Rate | Avg R | T / S / EOD | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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By sector
Which NEPSE sectors the strategy actually makes money in. Best = favor. Toxic = auto-blocked from new BUYs until edge recovers.
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By sector
Which NEPSE sectors the strategy actually makes money in. Best = favor. Toxic = auto-blocked from new BUYs until edge recovers.
| Sector | Source | n | Win Rate | Avg R | T / S / EOD | PF | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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leaderboard Signal Outcomes Win/loss tracking with P&L per signal
| Symbol | Signal | Entry | Exit | P&L % | R Multiple | Result | Date |
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school What do these numbers mean? (Plain English)
paper_campaign is live paper trading; backtest is historical replay. Paper is the real evidence.Decision support only. Not financial advice. Manual confirmation, sizing, and stop-loss required.